Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
