A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
